The Golden Globes, a prestigious awards ceremony, will play a pivotal role in determining the final lineup for the 2025 Best Picture category. After the BAFTA Longlists and PGA nominations, several films have been deemed unlikely contenders. 'Wicked: For Good' missed the Best Ensemble category at the Actor Awards and the PGA, significantly impacting its chances. Similarly, 'No Other Choice' failed to secure a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the BAFTA longlists, leaving it without a viable above-the-line category. 'Jay Kelly', a film centered around the reflections of an A-list actor, has also faced challenges, blanking at the Actor Awards and performing poorly on the BAFTA longlists, further diminishing its prospects. 'Avatar: Fire & Ash' has been on shaky ground since missing the Critics' Choice nomination and now faces competition from other box-office successes like 'F1' and 'Weapons'.
On the other hand, some films have emerged as strong contenders. 'Bugonia' dominated the BAFTA longlists and received a PGA nomination, solidifying its position in the Best Picture category. 'Train Dreams' and 'Frankenstein', 'Hamnet', 'Marty Supreme', 'One Battle After Another', 'Sentimental Value', 'Sinners' are now seemingly safe nominees, bringing the total to eight. This leaves 'Blue Moon', 'F1', 'It Was Just an Accident', 'The Secret Agent', and 'Weapons' in contention for the last two slots in Best Picture.
The Golden Globes, which will be held this Sunday, will serve as a crucial barometer, especially since Oscar voting begins on Monday. The Globes are particularly significant for 'It Was Just an Accident' and 'The Secret Agent', the two international films vying for the last two Best Picture slots. While industry awards have largely overlooked these films, the Globes have been praised for their recognition of international cinema. Both films need to secure a win here to stand a chance at a major award. 'It Was Just an Accident', despite missing the top category at all industry awards, is likely to secure a spot in Best Picture due to its Palme d'Or win and consistent buzz throughout the season. An Original Screenplay nomination is also probable, given the film's nominations in Film, Director, and Screenplay at the Golden Globes.
'The Secret Agent' is on shakier ground for a Best Picture nomination but has shown signs of strength. The film received a Casting shortlist at the Oscars, a Critics' Choice win for Best International Film, and a Golden Globe nomination in Best Film - Drama. The lead actor, Wagner Moura, is also a strong contender for a nomination. However, Moura's missed opportunities at the Actor Awards and BAFTA longlist for the same category could impact his chances. A Globe win for Moura would solidify his position in the Best Actor lineup, as Globe winners in the Drama field rarely miss a nomination. This could further boost 'The Secret Agent' with nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture. Conversely, if Moura loses, Jesse Plemons could take his place in the Oscar lineup.
'Blue Moon' was initially overlooked as a Best Picture contender until its surprise Golden Globe nomination in Best Film - Comedy. Ethan Hawke, the lead actor, has been a strong threat in Best Actor, and the film is being campaigned by Sony Pictures Classics, a legendary Oscar campaigner. The film's momentum and expert campaigning, coupled with Fernanda Torres' Golden Globe win in Best Actress, propelled it into the Best Picture category. The narrative surrounding 'Blue Moon' could intensify if Hawke wins the Globe, especially if he upsets Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio. This would add to the film's charm, capturing the pain of being an artist who never receives recognition. With a potential Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay win, 'Blue Moon' could surge as a Best Picture contender.
If none of these films secure a win, 'F1' and 'Weapons' could emerge as strong contenders. Both films received PGA nominations on Friday and have strong audience reception. 'F1' could secure a spot through its popularity and below-the-line strength, with nominations in Best Sound, Film Editing, and potential tech categories. 'Weapons', on the other hand, could rely on Amy Madigan's performance in Best Supporting Actress and an Original Screenplay nomination. The film's nominations for Best Casting at the Oscars and BAFTAs further strengthen its case.
In conclusion, the Golden Globes will play a pivotal role in shaping the final Best Picture lineup. The ceremony will provide an opportunity for several contenders to gain an extra boost, but if they fail, two populist picks could fill the open slots. The predictions for the Best Picture nominees remain uncertain, and the Globes will serve as a crucial indicator of the films' strength and popularity. The ceremony will be a fascinating event, with the potential to surprise and delight audiences and critics alike.
